The baby boomers are leaving a large gap in the labour market. In addition, labour productivity growth has decreased significantly. As a result, Germany faces a period of increasing labour shortages and particularly weak economic growth. In the first part of the analysis, we answer the following questions: What economic development would be expected in Germany up to 2050 if the current trends around labour force participation, working hours and labour productivity were to continue? How realistic is this? To find out, we calculated a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario that carries over the growth of gross domestic product on the basis of the prevailing trends. The second part of the study highlights the most important approaches that Germany can adopt to reduce the shortage of skilled labour. What is clear is that the consequences of demographic change are sweeping and the need for action is urgent.

Growth weakness due to skills shortages: What would business as usual mean, what can we do?(PDF, 855 KB, accessible)