KfW Business Cycle Compass November 2021

German GDP will grow by a much stronger 4.4% in 2022 compared with 2.6% in 2021. After stagnating in the winter as a result of supply chain bottlenecks and pandemic-induced losses in contact-intensive services segments, quarterly growth will really pick up steam again from the spring. Manufacturing orders are at record high levels and will generate a strong output increase in 2022 as soon as bottlenecks ease. And as the pandemic is contained, consumption will also gain momentum again, especially since households have built up considerable excess savings which will enable them to at least mitigate losses in purchasing power due to higher energy prices. The euro area is set to grow by 4.2% in 2022 after 5.0% in 2021.The pandemic remains the primary risk, as vividly illustrated by the newly detected Omicron virus variant.

KfW Business Cycle Compass November 2021(PDF, 90 KB, non-accessible)

Press release