An economy does not grow consistently but rather in cycles, with alternate phases of poor or excessive utilisation of overall economic capacities. The analyses of these cycles and the forecasting of economic turnarounds are of great importance. The economy sets the economic framework within which private households, businesses and the state make decisions on consumption or investments. Monetary and fiscal policies also differ depending on the phase in the economic cycle. KfW Research analyses the economies in Germany and the Euro area and publishes its own quarterly forecasts for real GDP growth.
Media and Comments of the Chief Economist Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib
08.12.2023 │ Fed Meeting November 2023
"At its last meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will most likely leave the key interest rate at the current range of 5.25 % to 5.50 %. Price pressure is easing in almost all areas of the economy, causing the core inflation rate to fall to 4.0% in October, its lowest level since September 2021. The Federal Reserve's assessment of the situation for 2024 will emerge from the publication of the new projections. Growth expectations are likely to be revised slightly upwards and inflation forecasts slightly downwards. It is therefore very likely that the Fed will come down next year from the 22-year high of the key interest rate. However, the FOMC members' medium-term estimates for inflation and growth were widely dispersed, reflecting the high forecasting uncertainty at the moment. As things stand today, the big question is when the descent from the interest rate plateau will begin and how quickly it will take place. The Fed members' new interest rate forecasts will also provide a clue here. I expect an initial interest rate cut from the summer of next year.”
German Economy / European Economy
KfW Business Cycle Compass Germany / Eurozone
24 November 2023
Germany’s economy in 2024: a first silver lining on the horizon
A first silver lining is appearing on the economic horizon. According to the new autumn forecast by KfW Research, the German economy will grow again by a moderate 0.6% in 2024 but will presumably contract by 0.4% in 2023. Half of this year’s decline is attributable solely to the fact that 2023 has two fewer working days than 2022. Germany’s inflation rate will drop from 6.1% this year to 2.5% next year, thereby contributing to a recovery in consumption. Euro area GDP should grow by 0.5% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024.
KfW-ifo SME Barometer
SMEs play a decisive role for the growth and prosperity of an economy. Using its unique surveys, studies and statistics, KfW Research analyses the needs of SMEs in Germany. The KfW-ifo SME Barometer indicators are based on a scale-of-enterprise evaluation of the ifo economic surveys, from which the well-known ifo business climate index is calculated, among others. Around 9,500 businesses, including around 8,000 SMES, from manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services (excluding lending, insurance and state) are polled monthly regarding their economic situation.
14 November 2023
SME business sentiment rose again for the first time since the spring
After five straight declines, SME sentiment finally turned the corner in October, rising by 2.1 points to -17.1 balance points. It appears to have bottomed out.
From May 2020 combined with German Economy
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