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    Media and Comments of the Chief Economist Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib

    24.06.2024 │ ifo business climate

    Meeting KfW Research
    "The upturn in business sentiment is faltering. The expectations component of the business climate has fallen, presumably because risks to economic development remain high. This also includes the increased support for populist parties at home and abroad, as the European elections at the beginning of the month showed. Populism could have a particularly negative impact on an export-oriented country like Germany in the longer term. The current uncertainty could also be linked to the upcoming parliamentary elections in France. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will be at least as relevant."
    Previous comments from Dr Fritzi Köhler-Geib

    German Economy / European Economy

    KfW Business Cycle Compass Germany / Eurozone

    The economy is growing again

    24 May 2024

    German GDP increased slightly again in the first quarter of 2024 and the economic indicators available to date also point to growth in the second quarter. Developments have largely confirmed the assumptions made in the winter forecast, which is why KfW Research continues to expect price-adjusted growth of 0.3% for Germany in 2024, followed by 1.2% in 2025. After a surprisingly good start to the year, we now expect GDP in the eurozone to grow by 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. Inflation is likely to be somewhat bumpier in the coming months, but ultimately inflation should continue to fall in both Germany and the Eurozone and be very close to the target value of 2% next year.

    Current KfW Business Cycle Compass Germany / Eurozone

    GDP Germany

    KfW-ifo SME Barometer

    SMEs play a decisive role for the growth and prosperity of an economy. Using its unique surveys, studies and statistics, KfW Research analyses the needs of SMEs in Germany. The KfW-ifo SME Barometer indicators are based on a scale-of-enterprise evaluation of the ifo economic surveys, from which the well-known ifo business climate index is calculated, among others. Around 9,500 businesses, including around 8,000 SMES, from manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services (excluding lending, insurance and state) are polled monthly regarding their economic situation.

    SMEs are slightly more confident as optimism rises

    5 June 2024

    Sentiment among SMEs improved for the fourth straight month in May but only slightly and only because of a somewhat more positive outlook for the near future. Services are the only sector standing in the way of a higher business sentiment. SMEs in all other economic sectors were in a better, or even much better mood than in April. All in all, the path to an economic recovery is coming into view but overall growth will still remain meagre this year.

    Current KfW-ifo SME Barometer
    Basic data set May 2024



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