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KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone

On the construction of the KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone: Starting point of our GDP forecast are the unadjusted results of several econometric models, that use a number of leading indicators to derive forecasts for average annual growth rates for the current and the following year, as well as a quarterly growth rate for the current quarter. In a process of intense discussions, these results are then reconciled with expert opinion that also takes into account qualitative factors that cannot be modelled. The result is a growth forecast for the Eurozone in line with our scenario for Germany and the world economy.

Forwarding to KfW Research