KfW Business Cycle Compass Germany/Eurozone May 2020
News from 2020-05-12 / KfW Research
The long path out of the coronavirus slump
The pandemic has hit Europe like a bolt of lightning. The recession is unprecedented in breadth and depth, with the German economy expected to contract by around 6% in 2020. However, in the absence of a second wave of infections, an initially strong and then faltering recovery should begin as early as the second half of the year, which will be reflected in a catch-up growth rate of 5% in 2021. Output will thus return to its pre-crisis level in autumn of 2021. Aggregate output loss will then be around EUR 300 billion.
In the euro area, the recession will likely be even deeper (2020: -7%; 2021: +6%), since the pandemic has hit the other large countries – France, Italy and Spain – particularly hard and the structural environment is unfavourable as well.