KfW-ifo Credit Constraint Indicator Q4 2025

The credit constraint indicator for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – the share of businesses experiencing restrictive lending practices – rose to 37.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a record high level since records began. Large enterprises, too, experienced significantly more restrictive lending practices, lifting the indicator to 29.4%. The main causes are the persistently weak business cycle, structural problems in the economy and external challenges that are causing banks to be more cautious in their lending policy.

Nonetheless, there are at least early signs of a moderate revival of credit demand. At the end of the year large enterprises showed a stronger interest in loan negotiations. But in order to be able to speak of a genuine trend reversal there must be a steady recovery in demand. The anticipated economic rebound in 2026 could provide important impetus.

KfW-ifo Credit Constraint Indicator Q4 2025(PDF, 152 KB, accessible)