KfW Credit Market Outlook Q1 2025

New lending from German banks gained momentum at the turn of the year. At 3.1% in the fourth and over 4% in the first quarter, loan growth has clearly returned to positive territory for the time being. But the recovery is starting from a low level. Adjusted for prices, new lending in 2024 remained more than 10% below the pre-crisis level of 2019.

The now significant fall in interest rates on loans in particular is helping the credit market to get back on its feet. The easing of monetary policy is beginning to be felt noticeably. However, in view of the long-running economic stagnation and new uncertainties caused by the erratic US tariff policy, the recovery in corporate lending will remain muted for the time being. Banks are acting cautiously in view of the risks and companies are holding back on investments.

KfW Credit Market Outlook Q1 2025(PDF, 191 KB, accessible)