For more than 70 years, economic growth in Germany could be seen as guaranteed. Those days are over, particularly as a result of weak productivity growth. If Germany sought to maintain per-capita GDP constant up to the year 2035 by increasing labour force participation or immigration alone, it would either have to raise the labour force participation rate far more rapidly than is currently the case or increase net immigration to more than 1.3 million people of working age. Securing present prosperity and future prosperity growth therefore requires a comprehensive mix of measures that also lead to stronger labour productivity growth. This paper draws up scenarios that highlight the requirements and possible responses.

Skills shortage marks a turning point: The times of guaranteed growth are over(PDF, 307 KB, accessible)