It is not a particularly new or original idea that the future is uncertain and can sometimes bring surprises. However, the degree of uncertainty and unpredictability has steadily increased in recent decades. Especially in fragile contexts, it has long been the case that “development” is more a succession of crises, structural disruptions and temporary surges than a continuous process that could even remotely be reliably depicted with traditional point forecasts.

The current issue of “Development in Brief” features “strategic foresight”, an alternative way of dealing with a high degree of uncertainty about future developments, which makes it possible to respond flexibly and remain capable of taking action even in widely varying circumstances.

Dealing with growing uncertainty: Strategic foresight – Envisioning alternatives(PDF, 76 KB, non-accessible)