China’s two longer term development goals consist in achieving high-income country status by 2025 and doubling economic output by 2035. In order to achieve the first goal, average nominal per capita gross national income will need to grow by only 4% per year on average. The second goal, however, is more ambitious. After all, the growth contribution of capital will continue to decrease, among other things because the continuing transformation of the growth model implies that investment becomes less important compared with consumption. This development must be offset by a general increase in productivity and human capital formation. The former has some catching up to do, which is masked by the country’s successes in the area of cutting-edge technology. If China succeeds in strengthening its innovation activity, competition in the global market for high-tech and medium-tech goods will intensify for Germany as well.

China’s long-term development goals: a challenge to productivity(PDF, 382 KB, non-accessible)