Germany's external trade 2016

KfW Research is launching a new indicator of Germany's external trade activity – the KfW External Trade Barometer. The first edition demonstrates that Germany's exports may pick up somewhat later in the year together with the global economy, while the momentum of imports will follow the slightly easing domestic demand. The external trade momentum has hovered very close to its long-term level since the end of 2013 and will probably continue its sideways movement this year as well.

KfW External Trade Barometer 1st Quarter 2016(PDF, 97 KB, non-accessible)

Economic policy debate places considerable focus on the impacts of the exchange rate and its movements on a country's exports and imports. Germany's exports grow with a real depreciation of the euro but the correlation with demand from abroad is even closer. German import growth, in turn, hardly responds in any systematic way to chances of the real effective exchange rate but are dependent on domestic demand.

Germany’s external trade – driven by demand or by the exchange rate?(PDF, 143 KB, non-accessible)