Production figures are highly volatile – this makes it difficult to identify the underlying trend in production in ‘real time’. The September figures point to a stabilisation of industrial production. The figures on new orders and the sentiment indicators suggest that momentum will improve over the coming months. Of course, there remains a long list of risk factors that could bring the industrial recovery to an end before it has even really got going. The nervousness in the financial markets regarding the further expansion of AI infrastructure is just one example of this.

Dr Dirk Schumacher