Dr Dirk Schumacher – Chief Economist of KfW

“The ECB will leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. The data published since the last meeting do not necessitate any adjustment to monetary policy. Inflation is close to the inflation target. At the same time, services inflation remains stubbornly around three percent, which contradicts a complete normalisation of inflation dynamics. The trade conflict with the US remains a major source of uncertainty. However, there are no signs of a significant economic downturn due to the tariff increase, nor are there any visible effects on inflation. The strength of the euro against the US dollar – but also the weakness of the Chinese renminbi – will dampen price pressures and further hamper European exporters. However, these effects are not significant enough at present to influence the ECB's monetary policy course.”

Dr Dirk Schumacher