KfW Business Cycle Compass November 2020

In the summer months Germany and the euro area were able to offset a large part of the previous economic contraction. However, as a result of the renewed sharp rise in the number of new COVID-19 infections since the beginning of autumn and the restrictions that became necessary, the recovery will stop temporarily. A decline in economic output is to be expected for the winter half-year of 2020/2021. Based on the encouraging perspective that effective vaccines will soon be available, KfW Research forecasts that the return to public life and social activities will lead to a surge in growth from next spring. Germany is set to grow by 4.0% in 2021 and the euro area by as much as 5.1%, starting from a lower level.

KfW Business Cycle Compass November 2020(PDF, 120 KB, non-accessible)