News from 2019-11-22 / KfW Research
KfW Business Cycle Compass Germany November 2019
Germany: The economic stalemate continues for the time being
The German economy has narrowly escaped a technical recession, growing at a rate of 0.1% in the third quarter of 2019. Economic growth should be equally weak in the final quarter. KfW Research now expects real growth of 0.5% for all of 2019 and 0.9% for 2020 (previous forecast: 0.4 and 0.6%). The upgraded forecast is based on the moderate easing of the US’s trade conflicts and the avoidance of a hard Brexit at Halloween. The growth pickup of 0.4 percentage points expected for 2020 is exclusively due to the additional output generated on four additional working days (calendar effect). Given continuing substantial uncertainties, the economy remains vulnerable to negative surprises.
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