KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone September 2018

The long upswing in the euro area is not over yet but growth is now continuing at a more leisurely pace than in 2017. The business cycle has embarked on a more moderate growth path.

We have therefore lowered our growth forecast for 2018 to 2.0 %. We also see a further slowdown to 1.7 % for the next year. Both of these growth rates, however, are still above the long-term average.

But a range of downward risks could lead to a more significant cooling of the business cycle. Global trade conflicts, the balance of payments crisis in Turkey and the return of high risk premiums for European government bonds could become economic stumbling blocks.

KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone September 2018(PDF, 92 KB, non-accessible)

Press release