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Demographics and Education
Demographics and Education
Analyses and survey findings on
- Demographic trends, particularly with regard to skilled labour and migration,
- Developments in the education sector with a focus on individual education finance and tertiary education,
- Continuous vocational training and lifelong learning.
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Focus on Economics
A new study by KfW Research has fact-checked popular myths about the labour market impacts of digitalisation. Key findings: The negative impacts are often exaggerated in public debate, which instils unnecessary fear. Jobs will be lost but this will likely affect only a fraction of the labour force. Structural change has slowed down in past decades, creating high job security. Incomes from work are unlikely to decline as a result of automation in the near future. Given the current demographic trends, however, the weak labour productivity rate is a cause of concern. Digitalisation and automation offer an opportunity to overcome productivity weakness. That would require increasing the low investment and innovation rates, along with a digital education initiative that also reduces the high share of low-skilled workers.
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Digitalisation: Much ado about nothing or is there more to come? (PDF, 373 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Three quarters of the population between the age of 18 and 67 has a generally positive attitude towards skilled migrants. These are the findings of a representative survey by KfW Research. Forty-four per cent of the working-age population is of the opinion that Germany should step up its efforts to attract skilled migrants, 30% believe the current level is sufficient and 21% would prefer less. A majority of graduates, high earners and self-employed persons endorse higher skilled migration, unemployed persons are more likely to oppose it. People in rural areas and in eastern Germany are also less likely to see a need for foreign skilled migrants.
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Focus on Economics
Fear of failure hampers start-up activity in Germany more than elsewhere. But the good news is that this fear is slowly fading. Fear of failure is mostly driven by fear of financial burdens, should things go wrong. Contrary to widespread assumption, fear of stigmatisation hardly plays a role. Financial risk is part and parcel of entrepreneurial freedom and must not be ignored. Improved teaching of entrepreneurial skills and basic economics, however, can provide potential business founders with the tools to more accurately gauge this risk and take away some of the fear – a knowledge basis that should be created early.
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Focus on Economics
According to recent data collected by the KfW SME Panel, around 227,000 owner-managers of small and medium-sized enterprises want to place their business into the hands of a successor by the end of 2020. More than one third of these enterprises have already found a successor. A further quarter are conducting negotiations. The current generation of owner-managers is generally more aware of the need to face the challenges of generational change in a timely manner. Succession outside the family is generally on the rise. Most succession planners have a sound earnings situation, profitability and equity base. Nevertheless, not all will succeed in handing over their business. Time is running out for 36,000 SMEs in particular. They want to complete their succession in the next two years but have not even taken the first step yet. And the main bottleneck remains: The pool of emerging entrepreneurs is too small.
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Status report on SME succession: Planning steady at a high level (PDF, 346 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Migrants are more active entrepreneurs than the average citizen. For one thing, they have a stronger desire for occupational independence and for another they have lower formal qualifications on average and, hence, more limited labour market opportunities. Migrant start-ups are also different, as they have more co-workers and focus on the personal services sector. They are more strongly affected by certain start-up problems, such as financing. All these patterns are even slightly more pronounced among migrants who live in a non-German-speaking household. Language barriers play a role here and it takes time and support to break them down.
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Migrant start-ups – a stronger desire for self-employment (PDF, 234 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
In 2017 there were around 154,000 ‘young’ social entrepreneurs with 108,000 social enterprises in Germany. That was a share of 9% of all young entrepreneurs. Besides seeking to make a profit, at the very top of their target system is a particular social or ecological concern for which they forgo possible returns. In addition, they also like to break new ground. Just under one third of ‘young’ social entrepreneurs offer new-to-market innovations that were previously unavailable in their target market and one in four develop technological innovations of their own to market readiness. That makes many social entrepreneurs pioneers of sustainable economic development. The share of social entrepreneurs is above average among older business founders. They show that it is possible to realise new plans even at an advanced age and that should be welcomed in the face of demographic change. Social entrepreneurs are more likely to be unsure about having the required business skills, so they should be supported in acquiring such skills.
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Focus on Economics
What factors determine whether an enterprise carries out digitalisation projects or produces innovations? The analysis shows that digitalisation projects are concentrated much less on individual groups of enterprises – classified by age, size and sales region – than innovations. In addition, digitalisation projects depend less on the current business cycle. Nevertheless, they are carried out primarily by young entrepreneurs. This does not apply to the same extent to innovations. Overall, however, SMEs’ digitalisation and innovation activities are influenced by similar factors.
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Economics in Brief
Ethiopia is one of the world’s least developed countries. Still, it has recorded astonishing development progress for over two decades. Targeted investment in healthcare, education and employment has improved living conditions and initiated a rapid decline in birth rates. Its participation in the ‘Compact with Africa’ underscores the country’s development strategy of generating employment and prosperity by promoting the private sector.
Ethiopia – from land of famine to land of hope? (PDF, 242 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Two thirds of SMEs planning to hire skilled workers in the next three years expect to face recruitment difficulties. That is significantly more than in 2014. A worrying trend is that the causes of the problem are clearly shifting towards a skills shortage. SMEs are increasingly concerned about not finding suitable candidates in the occupations needed. Other causes, such as lack of additional qualifications or excessively high wage demands, are fading into the background. Labour force participation rates, skilled migration and continuing education investment should (continue to) rise in order to prevent skills shortages.
Focus on Economics
Employment in Germany has been growing for thirteen years now – the longest phase of expansion of the past 50 years. But the growing skills shortage is raising fears that the jobs boom will soon come to an end as the supply of new workers begins to tighten. These fears are justified as demographic change is set to exacerbate the skills shortage. It is likely to create serious bottlenecks across wide sections of the economy after 2030 unless countermeasures are taken. This paper examines the causes that have made the German ‘jobs miracle’ possible. Based on the findings, the paper makes recommendations to successfully meet the challenges of demographic change.
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Economics in Brief
In 2017, migrants were responsible for one in five business start-ups in Germany and the trend is continuing. But as a result of the renewed decline in overall start-up activity, the absolute number of migrant start-ups fell to a new low of 115,000. Migrants are typically more entrepreneurial than the average citizen. In the past years, however, the migrant start-up rate was closer to the average. The latest data of the KfW Start-up Monitor show that the start-up rate among migrants in 2017 was nearly equal to the general start-up rate – an effect of the very tight labour market.
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Migrants’ start-up propensity is now in line with the average (PDF, 51 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
A wave of successions will sweep across Germany's small and medium-sized enterprise sector in the coming years. Until the year 2019, 240,000 businesses will change owners. For some 100,000 of them, time is running out. They still do not have a succession plan. But the nearer the time of transfer approaches, the less owners invest in their business. Clarity of succession therefore leverages investment - by a considerable 40 %. Managing generational change remains difficult. There are still not enough qualified new entrepreneurs moving up. Moreover, most owner-managers are not very flexible and have decided on a single form of succession. The demographic trend will ensure that the need for successors will also remain high in the future. One quarter of all owner-managers will be well over the age of 70 by the time they plan to retire. Already, 1.4 million are aged 55 or over.
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Wave of successions in German SMEs: 240,000 successors wanted by 2019 (PDF, 166 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Women run start-ups differently than men – especially mothers. Known as mompreneurs, they account for one in six start-ups in Germany and set very own accents. Balancing work and family life is crucial to mompreneurs in every way. Many start a business primarily to manage their time more flexibly, but others put their plans on ice out of concern they could put a strain on family life. But many mompreneurs manage this balancing act. They limit their working hours and, in turn, are less likely to start their business on their own – and some definitely have growth ambitions.
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Focus on Economics
Africa is the region with the 2nd highest urbanisation rate in the world after Asia. However, (economic) development is not keeping pace with the influx of people into the cities. Thus, the positive aspects of urbanisation (e.g. creation of jobs in the industrial sector, higher productivity and growth) are outweighed by its negative consequences (e.g. formation of slums, overburdened infrastructure). At the same time, ushering in a sustainable urbanisation process is of utmost importance to Africa, given that the growth momentum has slowed significantly after the slump in commodity prices in 2014. To initiate a productive urbanisation process, merely expanding infrastructure is not enough. Rather, concerted efforts at the political level are required.
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Economic prospects for sub-Saharan-Africa and the role of urbanisation (PDF, 303 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
High-growth enterprises are regarded as beacons of hope for economic growth and the creation of new jobs. Success factors are employment of graduates, early orientation to international markets, and an innovation strategy grounded on research and development (R&D). It is also evident that high-growth enterprises are often young and (still) small. But high-growth enterprises need to be supported by economic policy measures so that they can realise their full potential.
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Success factors of high-growth enterprises (PDF, 131 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Migrants have an above-average entrepreneurial drive. Each year, some 170,000 start a business of their own in Germany. The flipside of the higher rate of entrepreneurship among migrants is a slightly higher rate of failure. Nevertheless, migrants make a larger footprint on the start-up landscape than the average. Not only do they start businesses more often, but also on a larger scale. Migrants invest more working time in their start-up projects, are more likely to start off in a team, and employ more workers.
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Focus on Economics
A current survey by KfW Research shows that one third of the working-age population in Germany participated in vocational continuing education activities in 2015. It also revealed worrying imbalances. First, time-intensive, substantial continuing education is relatively rare. Second, low-skilled workers undertake continuing education less often than graduates and master craftsmen. This means they fail to make up for skills deficiencies from prior learning, so the education gap tends to widen even more in the course of their working life.
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Emerging Markets Spotlight
Vietnam has attained emerging market status thanks to its sustained economic boom. Favourable business conditions and a large domestic market make it an attractive investment location and sales market. Still, private enterprises also grapple with various challenges. Further economic policy reforms are urgently needed, for example in vocational education and training. Inadequate opportunities for skills acquisition have led to a serious shortage of qualified workers.
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Focus on Economics
One in three start-up entrepreneurs takes over or acquires an active participation in an existing business. As entrepreneurs are not immune to demographic change either, increasing numbers of SMEs are ready to change ownership. Takeover entrepreneurs therefore play an important role in preserving the Mittelstand, the backbone of the German economy. Most business transfers are still based on family succession. Here, more and more daughters appear to the taking over their fathers' companies. The share of female takeover entrepreneurs has more than doubled in the past years.
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Transfer-planning entrepreneurs outnumber takeover entrepreneurs 3 to 1 (PDF, 95 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Business succession is increasingly turning into a key challenge for SMEs' competitiveness. Some 620,000 small and medium-sized entrepreneurs plan to transfer or sell their business by the year 2018. However, a fundamental demographic bottleneck is emerging. There are not enough potential successors for the growing numbers of older entrepreneurs. Besides, many entrepreneurs wait very long before they think about their succession. One in three business owners who plan to retire within three years still has no concrete plans.
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Focus on Economics
Older consumers want different products and services – and their numbers are growing. Demographic factors such as population ageing can be important to boost consumption demand and growth. Roughly one fifth of today’s restrained growth in turnover in the SME sector can be attributed to demographic changes in demand. This is the finding of a special analysis conducted with the KfW SME Panel. There are also signs of investment stimuli because enterprises are under pressure to respond to changing sales markets.
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Demographic change bolsters private consumption and SME growth (PDF, 583 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
The East Asian developing and emerging countries have experienced enormous population growth in the past decades, which partly explains their economic boom (known as "demographic dividend"). But now the number of aged people is also growing massively, creating enormous challenges for the region. Areas requiring intervention include labour market policy and the development of pension insurance schemes, as well as health and aged care systems.
PDF for download:
Ageing in developing East Asia requires broad policy responses (PDF, 70 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The working population in Germany is ageing, affecting innovation activity in the SME sector. The likelihood that a typical small or medium-sized enterprise innovates drops by almost one fourth when the proportion of its workers who are over the age of 54 is 75 % instead of 16 %. In order to avoid the negative effects of an ageing workforce, companies have to do more to upgrade employee skills and adopt organisational measures such as forming mixed-age teams.
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SMEs and innovation: enterprises innovate less as their workforce ages (PDF, 133 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
In the 2020s at the latest, Germany’s growth potential will be under considerable downward pressure from the ageing and shrinking of its population. Only a broad economic-policy strategy can effectively stop the decline. However, its success will not only depend on considerable efforts in integrating refugees. Implementing ambitious general economic policy measures for increasing labour market participation, investment and productivity will also be crucial.
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Focus on Economics
The European Union and developing and emerging countries in Asia are moving closer together. Not only have trade relationships become considerably stronger, the flow of finance and foreign direct investment has increased too. There is also a growing recognition that both regions will be faced with similar challenges in the future, such as intensifying climate protection, rectifying infrastructure deficits – a key obstacle to growth – and demographic change. Increased cooperation and wide-ranging sharing of experience would help both regions to find sustainable solutions to these major issues.
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Common challenges for Europe and Asia as interdependence grows (PDF, 569 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
More than one fifth of Germany's SME employees are over the age of 54. The KfW SME Panel survey shows that SMEs do not see their older employees as a liability. On the contrary – they treasure mature workers' reliability and valuable expertise. In order to bring out the specific strengths of older employees, work procedures and conditions need to be adapted. In many SMEs, however, measures aimed at adapting workplaces to accommodate older workers, implementing workplace health management and creating a multi-generational work environment are still in the planning phase.
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Older workers in SMEs – a golden asset or liability? (PDF, 1 MB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
The historic dimensions of the refugee numbers lead to organisational problems, acute capacity bottlenecks – and manageable fiscal costs. Over the long term, the influx of refugees requires definitive investments in the future in three key areas: Firstly in accommodation, secondly in schools and daycare. Thirdly, alongside these investments in infrastructure, investments must be made in the human capital of the refugees. Integration into the labour market can only take place with sufficient language proficiency and professional qualifications. This provides an opportunity for an ageing economy which is already reliant on a workforce from abroad.
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Focus on Economics
Business start-ups that are well-informed about financial matters are more competitive. They have fewer financial problems, use more favourable financial resources and are much less likely to abort their start-up projects early on. These correlations are shown for the first time in a special analysis of the KfW Start-Up Monitor 2014. Through deficits in financial literacy, Germany is losing valuable entrepreneurial potential – thus some projects in recent years would have been more successful with better financial knowledge. Entrepreneurs of today can benefit in the short-term from targeted coaching and training. Training programmes like these have a demonstrable impact. However, participation rates still leave room improvement. For the future potential of entrepreneurs, entrepreneurship training in schools is key.
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Financial literacy helps with business startups: easier, better (PDF, 129 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Around 700,000 SMEs in Germany are currently led by women. This is one in every fifth small and medium-sized fim. Services make up over half of woman-led SMEs. The economic importance of woman-led SMEs is considerable, but disproportionally regarding their share in the SME sector. The share of female-led businesses will increase, because start-ups by women are on the rise. The exploitation of the potential of women as business leaders is to be welcomed: A shrinking workforce and the rapid ageing of SME owners put pressure on the 'German Mittelstand'.
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How female is the world of small business? Women as business leaders (PDF, 179 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
When companies take a long time to fill vacant positions, or are unable to fill them at all, their competitiveness suffers. Although SMEs are considerably more optimistic about recruiting skilled workers than they were a few years ago, nonetheless more than half of companies that are hiring expect to experience recruitment problems in the short term. SMEs clearly see the qualification of labour supply as the greatest issue. They are concerned about a shortage of applicants in certain occupations – primarily in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Many companies are also worried that applicants do not have the required additional qualifications, particularly in knowledge-intensive industries. In the short term, immigration can supply qualified workers to mitigate the impact of structural bottlenecks, whereas a lack of additional qualifications calls for targeted education and training initiatives.
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Focus on Economics
Not only political but also economic aspects triggered the Arabellion in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Important commonalities are the severe labour market problems and the discrimination of private investors. Targeted economic reforms would also contribute to the political stabilisation.
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North African countries face common economic challenges (PDF, 142 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
580,000 SME owners in Germany are planning to hand over or sell their business to a successor between now and 2017. But the number of people willing to take over a business is declining. This makes it more difficult to find a successor. The KfW SME Panel reveals that 9 % of SME owners hope to pass their business on to a family member. A similar number plan to find a solution outside their family. Our surveys reveal that external succession arrangements tend to bring investment to a halt. And there is a risk of asset erosion. However, where a business is handed over to a family member, this is accompanied by noticeably higher levels of investment.
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Focus on Economics
Demographic change has reached small and medium-sized enterprises. The average age of SME owners in Germany is rising fast. More than 1.3 million business owners are already aged 55 or older. At the same time, not enough business founders are coming up through the ranks. Accelerated ageing poses challenges because the propensity to invest decreases with the entrepreneur's age. The consequence is an investment backlog, a trend that must be halted. One option is for the exiting owner to be given a share of the return generated by an investment they made in the late stage of their ownership after they leave. Early succession planning can be helpful.
PDF for download:
Ageing of German SME owners is putting a dampener on investment (PDF, 117 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
One quarter of Germans could imagine becoming self-employed but a good third of them lack the business ideas to do so. The KfW Start-up Monitor 2014 sheds light on how new entrepreneurs come by their ideas. It is most common to see business ideas develop from identified niches on the market, from the career choice of the entrepreneur or based on suggestions from others. The last two seem to be particularly motivating – if the business idea is "typical of the profession" or comes from third parties, then the start-up plans are realised more frequently.
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Focus on Economics
The number of business start-ups in Germany has slumped in recent years. Although one in four people say they are open to the idea of becoming self-employed, many hesitate to do so because of the financial risks of self-employment compared with the advantages of salaried employment. Fear of failure is of lesser importance. We can get business start-ups going again by mobilising those usually less inclined to become entrepreneurs - not least women. There is also potential to be found in the ranks of the former self-employed. However, to exploit this potential we will need to see some cultural changes first.
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Focus on Economics
There are currently over 42 million people in work in Germany – more than ever before. At the same time, the total number of hours worked per year is actually slightly lower than in the 1990s. If this trend continues, it would add substantially to the already strong demographic pressure on the potential for growth.
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Focus on Economics
Demographic change makes it likely that the number of entrepreneurs founding companies in Germany will continue to fall. A rising number of graduates could counter this trend since they are far more inclined to start up a business than non-graduates. University spin-offs are especially innovative. Most graduates, however, only set up a business some time after completing their higher education and rely on business ideas from professional practice.
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Germany has some scope for public investment without violating the debt brake. In total, the federal government and municipal authorities could undertake additional investments in the region of EUR 150 billion (about 5 % of GDP) in the years ahead, if the government were to abandon budget surpluses that are not required by the constitution. The main arguments in favour of such a move are the fact that Germany trails most other industrialised countries in terms of public investment, the low interest rates and demand for safe forms of investment for retirement provisions.
PDF for download:
KfW-Investment Barometer Germany – Q2 2014 (PDF, 144 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
China has developed at an astounding rate, but its system is not sustainable. The government has introduced a variety of restructuring measures. The rest of the world is demanding that China initiate reforms, but at the same time, it is also fearful of any setbacks. However, the foreign partners must recognise more clearly that the reform process will also open up new and attractive prospects for them.
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Focus on Economics
The traditionally high levels of youth unemployment in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain soared even further with the outbreak of the financial crisis. Rigid labour markets and deficiencies in the education systems are major structural causes of this problem. In the medium to long term, labour market reforms and changes to the education system, in addition to an improvement in the overall economy, are urgently needed to overcome the problem. But in the short term, active labour market policies and increased mobility for training and employment purposes can provide relief.
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Economics in Brief
It is rare to see a woman at the helm of a company. But things can change. Demographic trends and changing attitudes to power among women are resulting in more women taking up leadership roles.
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Female Leaders – An economic success factor (PDF, 205 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
More per capita growth is possible, despite declining working population.
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Solving the demographic problem (PDF, 252 KB, non-accessible)
Economics in Brief
Germany's self-employed are older than their employed counterparts. Low-birth-rate generation and declining start-up ratios have led to a decline in the proportion of young entrepreneurs.
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Focus on Economics
The entrepreneurs in Germany are getting older. Is this trend impacting on levels of in-novation? Not in terms of products, but with regard to processes.
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Focus on Economics
Municipalities have a considerable need for conversion and demolition, the demographic change plays a major role. Until 2017, EUR 25 billion should be allocated to conversion and demolition.
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Economics in Brief
Over the past few years, the number of new entrepreneurs in the skilled trades has been falling at a disproportionally rapid rate. In 2012, around 91,000 craftsmen became self-employed.
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Start-up activity in the skilled trades: visible change (PDF, 175 KB, non-accessible)
Focus on Economics
Women entrepreneurs use less frequently external funds to finance their investments than male entrepreneurs.
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Economics in Brief
Due to simplifications in migration law and comparably favourable economic developments, increasing numbers of skilled workers are coming to Germany. This is welcomed as the working population in Germany is going to shrink considerably in the coming years, which threatens to bring a shortage of skilled workers.
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Germany is increasingly attracting qualified migrants (PDF, 205 KB, non-accessible)
