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KfW Credit Market Outlook

The structure of the KfW Credit Market Outlook:

New lending business is determined by adding to the quarterly variation of existing loans (data from the Deutsche Bundesbank on loans extended by German banks to domestic enterprises and self-employed professionals without housing construction loans and without loans to financial institutions and the insurance industry) a simulated on-schedule repayment behaviour (per quarter). The publication is presented in the form of the thus determined new lending business variation rate against the prior-year quarter, with the variation rate expressed as the moving two-quarter average. The forecast of new lending business is performed on the basis of a VAR model in which the GDP, the twelve-month money market rate and business investments are taken into account as the most important explanatory variables. Business investments comprise all non-public investment in equipment, industrial buildings and other facilities. They are calculated by KfW quarterly on the basis of the national accounts data from the Federal Statistical Office and, using leading financial and economic indicators, are projected into the future with the aid of a vector autoregressive model.

December 2023 Businesses are borrowing less
August 2023 New lending to businesses has stagnated
March 2023 Corporate credit demand goes into reverse gear
December 2022 Multiple shocks are driving record-high growth in new lending to businesses
October 2022 New lending to businesses on record level
July 2022 Credit market is reacting to interest turnaround
May 2022 New lending stages a strong comeback as Ukraine war weighs on outlook
December 2021 Omicron is overshadowing the recovery in the credit market
September 2021 Slump in credit growth has bottomed out
June 2021 Sharp drop in lending – base effect overstates weakness
March 2021 New lending slips into negative territory
December 2020 The trend reversal is here: New lending has cooled considerably
September 2020 It takes time to overcome the crisis – longer maturities are driving new lending
June 2020 More loans for businesses in the coronavirus crisis – new lending up sharply
March 2020 Coronavirus and credit: an important building block to limit the economic fallout
December 2019 Corporate lending: slower growth, more caution
October 2019 New lending business: all show and no go?
June 2019 New lending is still growing strongly
March 2019 Lending calms at the beginning of the year
December 2018 Lending to corporates remains very strong for the time being
September 2018 Lending to businesses is up sharply
June 2018 Lending growth appears to have peaked
March 2018 Upswing and low borrowing costs stimulate corporate lending
December 2017 Momentum on Germany's corporate lending market remains strong
September 2017 Is corporate lending activity rising to new heights?
June 2017 Credit market shows surprising momentum
April 2017 Credit market ended the year on a conciliatory note
December 2016 New lending is on a bumpy path to growth
September 2016 Lending is stabilising – but tangible growth is not in sight
June 2016 Mix of light and shade
April 2016 Corporate lending lull continues
December 2015 New lending is down
September 2015 Terms for bank loans remain excellent
June 2015 New lending business: Companies snatch up loans
March 2015 No impetus for credit growth in Germany
December 2014 New lending: Interim high rather than a sustained upswing
September 2014 New lending: feeble recovery
June 2014 New lending: economy recovering, but lending still stuck in the doldrums
March 2014 New lending: crossing the valley of low demand at walking pace
December 2013 New lending in hibernation
September 2013 New lending business: decline despite pickup in investment
June 2013 Lending business: Decline in new lending continues
March 2013 New lending business in subdued mood after weak ending to the year