KfW Credit Market Outlook

Forwarding to KfW Research

The structure of the KfW Credit Market Outlook:

New lending business is determined by adding to the quarterly variation of existing loans (data from the Deutsche Bundesbank on loans extended by German banks to domestic enterprises and self-employed professionals without housing construction loans and without loans to financial institutions and the insurance industry) a simulated on-schedule repayment behaviour (per quarter). The publication is presented in the form of the thus determined new lending business variation rate against the prior-year quarter, with the variation rate expressed as the moving two-quarter average. The forecast of new lending business is performed on the basis of a VAR model in which the GDP, the twelve-month money market rate and business investments are taken into account as the most important explanatory variables. Business investments comprise all non-public investment in equipment, industrial buildings and other facilities. They are calculated by KfW quarterly on the basis of the national accounts data from the Federal Statistical Office and, using leading financial and economic indicators, are projected into the future with the aid of a vector autoregressive model.

December 2022	Multiple shocks are driving record-high growth in new lending to businesses (PDF, 223 KB, accessible)
October 2022	New lending to businesses on record level (PDF, 129 KB, accessible)
July 2022	Credit market is reacting to interest turnaround (PDF, 116 KB, accessible)
May 2022	New lending stages a strong comeback as Ukraine war weighs on outlook (PDF, 181 KB, accessible)
December 2021	Omicron is overshadowing the recovery in the credit market (PDF, 128 KB, non-accessible)
September 2021	Slump in credit growth has bottomed out (PDF, 119 KB, non-accessible)
June 2021	Sharp drop in lending – base effect overstates weakness (PDF, 120 KB, non-accessible)
March 2021	New lending slips into negative territory (PDF, 136 KB, non-accessible)
December 2020	The trend reversal is here: New lending has cooled considerably (PDF, 122 KB, non-accessible)
September 2020	It takes time to overcome the crisis – longer maturities are driving new lending (PDF, 88 KB, non-accessible)
June 2020	More loans for businesses in the coronavirus crisis – new lending up sharply (PDF, 101 KB, non-accessible)
March 2020	Coronavirus and credit: an important building block to limit the economic fallout (PDF, 69 KB, non-accessible)
December 2019	Corporate lending: slower growth, more caution (PDF, 102 KB, non-accessible)
October 2019	New lending business: all show and no go? (PDF, 100 KB, non-accessible)
June 2019	New lending is still growing strongly (PDF, 191 KB, non-accessible)
March 2019	Lending calms at the beginning of the year (PDF, 186 KB, non-accessible)
December 2018	Lending to corporates remains very strong for the time being (PDF, 179 KB, non-accessible)
September 2018	Lending to businesses is up sharply (PDF, 167 KB, non-accessible)
June 2018	Lending growth appears to have peaked (PDF, 76 KB, non-accessible)
March 2018	Upswing and low borrowing costs stimulate corporate lending (PDF, 82 KB, non-accessible)
December 2017	Momentum on Germany's corporate lending market remains strong (PDF, 94 KB, non-accessible)
September 2017	Is corporate lending activity rising to new heights?
June 2017	Credit market shows surprising momentum
April 2017	Credit market ended the year on a conciliatory note
December 2016	New lending is on a bumpy path to growth
September 2016	Lending is stabilising – but tangible growth is not in sight
June 2016	Mix of light and shade
April 2016	Corporate lending lull continues
December 2015	New lending is down
September 2015	Terms for bank loans remain excellent
June 2015	New lending business: Companies snatch up loans
March 2015	No impetus for credit growth in Germany
December 2014	New lending: Interim high rather than a sustained upswing
September 2014	New lending: feeble recovery
June 2014	New lending: economy recovering, but lending still stuck in the doldrums
March 2014	New lending: crossing the valley of low demand at walking pace
December 2013	New lending in hibernation
September 2013	New lending business: decline despite pickup in investment
June 2013	Lending business: Decline in new lending continues
March 2013	New lending business in subdued mood after weak ending to the year