The structure of the KfW Credit Market Outlook:
New lending business is determined by adding to the quarterly variation of existing loans (data from the Deutsche Bundesbank on loans extended by German banks to domestic enterprises and self-employed professionals without housing construction loans and without loans to financial institutions and the insurance industry) a simulated on-schedule repayment behaviour (per quarter). The publication is presented in the form of the thus determined new lending business variation rate against the prior-year quarter, with the variation rate expressed as the moving two-quarter average. The forecast of new lending business is performed on the basis of a VAR model in which the GDP, the twelve-month money market rate and business investments are taken into account as the most important explanatory variables. Business investments comprise all non-public investment in equipment, industrial buildings and other facilities. They are calculated by KfW quarterly on the basis of the national accounts data from the Federal Statistical Office and, using leading financial and economic indicators, are projected into the future with the aid of a vector autoregressive model.
| May 2022 | New lending stages a strong comeback as Ukraine war weighs on outlook (PDF, 181 KB, accessible) |
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| December 2021 | Omicron is overshadowing the recovery in the credit market (PDF, 128 KB, non-accessible) |
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| September 2021 | Slump in credit growth has bottomed out (PDF, 119 KB, non-accessible) |
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| June 2021 | Sharp drop in lending – base effect overstates weakness (PDF, 120 KB, non-accessible) |
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| March 2021 | New lending slips into negative territory (PDF, 136 KB, non-accessible) |
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| December 2020 | The trend reversal is here: New lending has cooled considerably (PDF, 122 KB, non-accessible) |
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| September 2020 | It takes time to overcome the crisis – longer maturities are driving new lending (PDF, 88 KB, non-accessible) |
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| June 2020 | More loans for businesses in the coronavirus crisis – new lending up sharply (PDF, 101 KB, non-accessible) |
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| March 2020 | Coronavirus and credit: an important building block to limit the economic fallout (PDF, 69 KB, non-accessible) |
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| December 2019 | Corporate lending: slower growth, more caution (PDF, 102 KB, non-accessible) |
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| October 2019 | New lending business: all show and no go? (PDF, 100 KB, non-accessible) |
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| June 2019 | New lending is still growing strongly (PDF, 191 KB, non-accessible) |
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| March 2019 | Lending calms at the beginning of the year (PDF, 186 KB, non-accessible) |
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| December 2018 | Lending to corporates remains very strong for the time being (PDF, 179 KB, non-accessible) |
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| September 2018 | Lending to businesses is up sharply (PDF, 167 KB, non-accessible) |
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| June 2018 | Lending growth appears to have peaked (PDF, 76 KB, non-accessible) |
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| March 2018 | Upswing and low borrowing costs stimulate corporate lending (PDF, 82 KB, non-accessible) |
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| December 2017 | Momentum on Germany's corporate lending market remains strong (PDF, 94 KB, non-accessible) |
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| September 2017 | Is corporate lending activity rising to new heights? |
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| June 2017 | Credit market shows surprising momentum |
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| April 2017 | Credit market ended the year on a conciliatory note |
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| December 2016 | New lending is on a bumpy path to growth |
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| September 2016 | Lending is stabilising – but tangible growth is not in sight |
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| June 2016 | Mix of light and shade |
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| April 2016 | Corporate lending lull continues |
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| December 2015 | New lending is down |
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| September 2015 | Terms for bank loans remain excellent |
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| June 2015 | New lending business: Companies snatch up loans |
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| March 2015 | No impetus for credit growth in Germany |
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| December 2014 | New lending: Interim high rather than a sustained upswing |
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| September 2014 | New lending: feeble recovery |
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| June 2014 | New lending: economy recovering, but lending still stuck in the doldrums |
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| March 2014 | New lending: crossing the valley of low demand at walking pace |
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| December 2013 | New lending in hibernation |
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| September 2013 | New lending business: decline despite pickup in investment |
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| June 2013 | Lending business: Decline in new lending continues |
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| March 2013 | New lending business in subdued mood after weak ending to the year |
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