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KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone

On the construction of the KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone: Starting point of our GDP forecast are the unadjusted results of several econometric models, that use a number of leading indicators to derive forecasts for average annual growth rates for the current and the following year, as well as a quarterly growth rate for the current quarter. In a process of intense discussions, these results are then reconciled with expert opinion that also takes into account qualitative factors that cannot be modelled. The result is a growth forecast for the Eurozone in line with our scenario for Germany and the world economy.

Forwarding to KfW Research

December 2019 Brexit postponed again but euro area growth remains weak for the time being
September 2019 Heading for a lull – euro area faces prolonged phase of weakness
June 2019 Good start to the year is not a turnaround
February 2019 Business cycle is losing momentum
December 2018 Economy is facing headwinds
September 2018 Economic performance is good, but risks have grown
June 2018 Euro area growth is losing momentum
March 2018 Euro area recovery continues
December 2017 Euro area is poised for more growth in 2018
September 2017 Upswing in the euro area is strengthening
June 2017 Investment is making a comeback in the euro area
March 2017 Euro area economy defies political risks
December 2016 Economy is navigating through calmer waters amid looming political shockwaves
September 2016 Euro Area two months after the Brexit vote – solid growth, but more divergence
July 2016 Germany and the euro area after Brexit: expected upturn will not now occur
June 2016 Investment shows signs of life
March 2016 Despite financial market volatility, the euro area recovery remains on track
December 2015 The ‘two’ is within reach
September 2015 Moderate upswing continues
June 2015 Broad-based growth in the Eurozone
March 2015 The Eurozone economy is slowly picking up pace
December 2014 Growth insufficient to boost employment and investment
October 2014 Eurozone economy: few signs of life