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KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone

On the construction of the KfW Business Cycle Compass Eurozone: Starting point of our GDP forecast are the unadjusted results of several econometric models, that use a number of leading indicators to derive forecasts for average annual growth rates for the current and the following year, as well as a quarterly growth rate for the current quarter. In a process of intense discussions, these results are then reconciled with expert opinion that also takes into account qualitative factors that cannot be modelled. The result is a growth forecast for the Eurozone in line with our scenario for Germany and the world economy.

Forwarding to KfW Research

December 2019 Brexit postponed again but euro area growth remains weak for the time being(PDF, 86 KB, non-accessible)
September 2019 Heading for a lull – euro area faces prolonged phase of weakness(PDF, 183 KB, non-accessible)
June 2019 Good start to the year is not a turnaround(PDF, 181 KB, non-accessible)
February 2019 Business cycle is losing momentum(PDF, 189 KB, non-accessible)
December 2018 Economy is facing headwinds(PDF, 184 KB, non-accessible)
September 2018 Economic performance is good, but risks have grown(PDF, 92 KB, non-accessible)
June 2018 Euro area growth is losing momentum(PDF, 74 KB, non-accessible)
March 2018 Euro area recovery continues(PDF, 74 KB, non-accessible)
December 2017 Euro area is poised for more growth in 2018(PDF, 92 KB, non-accessible)
September 2017 Upswing in the euro area is strengthening(PDF, 119 KB, non-accessible)
June 2017 Investment is making a comeback in the euro area(PDF, 92 KB, non-accessible)
March 2017 Euro area economy defies political risks(PDF, 60 KB, non-accessible)
December 2016 Economy is navigating through calmer waters amid looming political shockwaves(PDF, 56 KB, non-accessible)
September 2016 Euro Area two months after the Brexit vote – solid growth, but more divergence(PDF, 174 KB, non-accessible)
July 2016 Germany and the euro area after Brexit: expected upturn will not now occur(PDF, 127 KB, non-accessible)
June 2016 Investment shows signs of life(PDF, 102 KB, non-accessible)
March 2016 Despite financial market volatility, the euro area recovery remains on track(PDF, 72 KB, non-accessible)
December 2015 The ‘two’ is within reach(PDF, 102 KB, non-accessible)
September 2015 Moderate upswing continues(PDF, 32 KB, non-accessible)
June 2015 Broad-based growth in the Eurozone(PDF, 96 KB, non-accessible)
March 2015 The Eurozone economy is slowly picking up pace(PDF, 35 KB, non-accessible)
December 2014 Growth insufficient to boost employment and investment(PDF, 98 KB, non-accessible)
October 2014 Eurozone economy: few signs of life(PDF, 110 KB, non-accessible)